GMA allies will still control the majority in the coming 14th Congress. An IPD study on the congressional races shows that most of the would be congressmen and congresswomen are allied with the administration. Out of the total 218 legislative districts throughout the country, as high as 160 seats will be on the hands GMA allies while the remaining 58 legislative districts will be captured by the opposition.  In more than half of the single member districts (130 races) there is 'no contest' at all.  This is because either the candidates are running unopposed or the opponents are too weak to pose any threat. Thus it is only in 88 legislative districts where real competition will happen. It is in these areas  where at this point, no single candidate has clear and wide advantage over their rivals.

Of the 130 sure winners, 97 are allied with GMA and 33 are allied with the opposition. Meanwhile of the 88 races where contests are real, the odds seems to favor the opposition in 25 legislative districts. These include the contest in Makati's second district where Atty. Abigail Binay - the daughter of Mayor Jejomar has slight edge over Erwin Genuino, son of Philippine Amusement and Games Corporation (Pagcor) Chair Efraim Genuino. Rep. Darlene Antonino Custodio  also has an edge over her rival boxing champion Manny Pacquiao despite of the latter's popularity and money. From the considered 'sure winners', the opposition has the likes of Rep. Gilbert Remulla from the second district of  Cavite and Rep Roilo Golez of Paranaque.

LIST OF OPPOSITION BETS WHO COULD BE PART OF 14TH CONGRESS*

From IPD Mapping of Legislative Districts

As of 21 April 2007

	SURE WINNERS			WITH GOOD FIGHTING CHANCE
	Name	District/Province		Name	District/Province
1	Vincent Crisologo	1st Dist. Quezon City	1	Oscar Malapitan	1st Dist. Caloocan City
2	Ronaldo Zamora	Lone Dist. San Juan	2	Edgar Erice	2nd Dist. Caloocan City
3	Roilo Golez	2nd Dist. Paranaque	3	Abigail Binay	2nd Dist. Makati City
4	Teodoro Locsin Jr.	1st Dist. Makati City	4	Zeneida Angping	3rd Dist. Manila City
5	Ruffy Biazon	Lone Dist. Muntinlupa	5	Toots Bacani	4th Dist. Manila City
6	Jaime Lopez	2nd Dist. Manila City	6	Estelita Hizon	5th Dist. Manila City
7	Lani Cayetano	1st Dist. Taguig-Pateros	7	Romy Cosalan	Lone Dist. Benguet
8	Cynthia Villar	Lone Dist. Las Pinas	8	Benjie Lim	4th Dist. Pangasinan
9	Elias Bulut	Lone Dist. Apayao	9	Giorgini Aggabao	4th Dist. Isabela
10	Solomon Chungalao	Lone Dist. Ifugao	10	Carlos Padilla	Lone Dist. Nueva Vizcaya
11	Roque Ablan	1st Dist. Ilocos Norte	11	Tong Payumo	1st Dist. Bataan
12	Ferdinand Marcos Jr.	2nd Dist. Ilocos Norte	12	Feliciano Bartolome	Lone Dist. SJDM City
13	Manuel Mamba	3rd Dist. Cagayan	13	Eduardo Nonato Joson	1st Dist. Nueva Ecija
14	Edgardo Angara Jr.	Lone Dist. Aurora	14	Benjamin Agarao Jr.	4th Dist. Laguna
15	Annayork Bondoc	4th Dist.Pampanga	15	Joseph Abaya	1st Dist. Cavite
16	Dan Fernandez	1st Dist. Laguna	16	Jesus Crispin Remulla	3rd Dist. Cavite
17	Justin Timmy Chipeco	2nd Dist. Laguna	17	Liwayway Vinzons-Chato	Lone Dist. Camarines Norte
18	Gilbert Remulla	2nd Dist. Cavite	18	Arnulfo Fuentabella	3rd Dist. Camarines Sur
19	Hermilando Mandanas	2nd Dist. Batangas	19	Raman Nava	Lone Dist. Guimaras
20	Ricky Recto	4th Dist. Batangas	20	Neil Jun-Jun Tupas	5th Dist. Iloilo
21	Preceso Alcala	2nd Dist. Quezon	21	Jose Manuel Dabao	6th Dist. Negros Occidental
22	Erin Tañada	4th Dist. Quezon	22	Josie Lim Quichong	1st Dist. Negros oriental
23	Alfonso Umali Jr.	2nd Dist. Oriental Mindoro	23	Paul Daza	1st Dist. Northern Samar
24	Salvador Escudero	1st Dist. Sorsogon	24	Darlene Antonino-Custodio	1st Dist. South Cotabato
25	Vicente Bermejo	1st Dist. Capiz	25	Rufus Rodriguez	2nd Dist. Cagayan de Oro City
26	Malu Acosta	1st Dist. Bukidnon
27	Teofisto Guingona III	2nd Dist. Bukidnon
28	Ernie Clarete	1st Dist. Misamis Occidental
29	Rene Elias Lopez	3rd Dist. Davao City
30	Franklin Bautista	2nd Dist. Davao del Sur
31	Arthur Pinggoy	2nd Dist. South Cotabato
32	Rodolfo Plaza	Lone Dist. Agusan del Sur
33	Didagen Dilangalen	Lone Dist. Sharif Kabunsuan

 * Initial assessment, for further validation.

The IPD mapping of legislative districts considered several key factors in its assessment of likely outcomes. One is the performance in previous elections, especially of candidates who ran for office in 2001 and 2004. Second, is the relative strength/weakness of the candidates based on assessments of political operators on the ground. Third, are views from leaders of some political parties. Fourth, are the alignments of politically influential families at the district and provincial level. Fifth and finally, the voting pattern of the electorate at the local level. Based on these data, a team of IPD research associates assessed the chances of each and every candidate in every legislative district.
 
While GMA allies are poised to dominate the 14th Congress, an impeachment is still possible.  The minimum 58 seats that will likely be captured by the opposition do not yet include the seats that will be won by non-administration party-list groups. Granting that these party-list groups can maintain the same level of representation of 13 seats on to the 14th Congress, then an impeachment complaint can easily be endorsed by 71 opposition legislators. A figure that only needs ten more for an impeachment compliant to be forwarded to the Senate without the going through the debates at the House Committee on Justice.

The possibility of an impeachment in the next Congress seem to also explain the squid tactics that the administration has adopted against the opposition and progressive party-list groups, especially those who have supported the impeachment complaints in 2005 and 2006.  GMA administration wants to fend off impeachment threats this early.